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COLUMBIA, MO. -- UPDATE: Tuesday, November 15 at 8:00 p.m.:

Will it be a cold and snowy winter?

That’s what one Mizzou researcher is forecasting.

Professor and Chair of the MU Department of Atmospheric Science Tony Lupo is predicting a repeat performance of last winter’s frigid conditions.

Last winter, Midwestern states experienced one of the coldest winters in recent history.  Lupo said blocking patterns in our atmosphere this winter will keep cold air in place over Missouri.

Lupo said, “It blocks off the progression of the storm track, but for North America, it allows the flow to be northwesterly.  That means arctic air masses have an easier time getting into the continental region.”

Lupo said the weather phenomenon called La Nina is the driving force behind his cold winter prediction.  La Nina cools the Pacific Ocean and influences global weather patterns.  Less warm air rises during La Nina periods and cools the atmosphere.  Last winter’s La Nina was one of the strongest on record.  Lupo is also predicting another snowy winter for much of the Midwest.  Technology continues to make it easier to make long range forecasts.

KRCG Meteorologist Zach Paul said, “NOAA just launched a new satellite that’s going to help study more of this long range and climate forecasting.  On a day to day basis, weather can generally be forecasted 5 to 7 days out.  Beyond 7 days, you start playing a little bit more of the averages and the climate in the situation.”

What is Lupo’s bottom line?

Colder temperatures and increased moisture means another snowy and frigid winter for much of the Midwest.

Lupo is part of a team that recently received a $104,000 grant to study blocking patterns that help predict long range forecasts.

Original Story:

Will this winter be cold and snowy? A researcher at Mizzou says he thinks it will be.

“Atmospheric blocking patterns will keep cold air in place,” said Tony Lupo, professor and chair of the Department of Atmospheric Science in the School of Natural Resources. “In addition, more moisture will be guided into the United States leading to more precipitation. With colder temperatures and increased moisture, expect another snowy winter for much of the Midwest.”

Lupo said La Ninã will be the driving force behind the snowy winter in the Midwest. He predicted above normal precipitation for much of the United States.

Tonight at 10, Mark Slavit talks to Lupo about his prediction.

Do you think there will be more snow than normal againt his winter? Did you enjoy the snowfall last winter?