Tuesday, May 21, 2013

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Declining birth rates cause small class sizes
Posted: 02.08.2010 at 11:12 AM Updated: 02.08.2010 at 9:40 PM
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JEFFERSON CITY, MO. -- Birth rates have been falling in the U.S. since the 1960s.
 
There was a slight increase in the late 1980s, but the number of babies being born fell quickly again in the early '90s and has continued to decline.
 
US birth rates 

Evidence of that quick drop in the early 1990s can be seen in current high school class sizes.

The number of graduating seniors at Jefferson City High School will drop over eight percent in the next four years.

When they entered as freshman, the Class of 2010 had 759 students. Only 712 freshman are currently enrolled to make up the Class of 2013.

See the graph below to get detailed class size numbers from school districts across mid-Missouri. Change the settings with the drop down menus to compare different school districts and see changes over time.

 

"We knew it was coming, but we didn't know to what extent it was coming," Lincoln University's Executive Director of Enrollment Management Mike Kosher said.

So what will the declining size of graduating classes mean for colleges and universities in the heart of Missouri, who are coming off of two consecutive years of record enrollment numbers?

"We drew 75 students this past year from Jefferson City High School," Kosher said. "If I take eight percent of those away, I'm looking at a reduction of about six students. Six students might not seem like a lot, but let's take six students away from the top 20 of our feeder high schools, there's 120 less students that I've got."

Some analysts suggest that decrease in birth rates could be attributed to the economic recession that hit much of the world in 1990 and 1991.

A Time magazine article suggests America could face a similar situation in 18 years.

Birth rates fell two percent in 2008, the biggest drop in nearly 40 years.

Many parents said they did not want to have kids in this unsteady economy.

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